Poll: Trump leads Democrats in key 2020 battleground states

Amid impeachment proceedings, Trump gains ground over all likely Democratic 2020 contenders in 4 key battleground states.

David Rosenberg ,

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

President Donald Trump has made major gains in four key 2020 battleground states, and now leads his likely Democratic opponents, new polls show.

In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by flipping three states Democrats had won in every presidential election since 1988: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – the heart of what had come to be known as the Democratic “blue wall”. A fourth “blue wall” state, Iowa, also flipped, going from a six-point Democratic win in 2012 to a nine-and-a-half point GOP win in 2016.

Trump narrowly carried the three first states – each by a margin less than one percent – pushing his electoral college total from 260, ten shy of the 270 necessary to win, to 306 (two faithless Electors notwithstanding).

While Clinton largely ignored these three states in her 2016 campaign – making no campaign events in Wisconsin – Trump’s surprise wins in those states have made them prime targets for Democrats looking to unseat him in 2020.

For most of the year, Democrats led him in all three states, surveys by a Republican agency showed.

But the latest survey by Firehouse Strategies and Optimus show the president getting a bump in all three states – even as House Democrats continue impeachment proceedings against him.

Now the president leads the five top Democratic primary contenders – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg – in all three states.

In Michigan, for example, which Trump won by his narrowest margin in 2016 (0.22%, or less than 11,000 votes), Trump was tied with Biden in a March survey, but trailed him in June and September.

In the latest poll conducted between December 3rd and the 5th, however, Trump leads Biden by five points, 46% to 41%

Trump leads the other four likely Democratic candidates in Michigan by even wider margins: Sanders by six points, 48% to 42%; Warren by nine points, 47% to 38%; Buttigieg by 11 points, 48% to 37%; and Bloomberg by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

In Wisconsin, however, the shift was even more dramatic.

In March, Biden led the president by 12 points. Now, however, Trump leads Biden by nine points, 48% to 39%, with the president holding double-digit leads over the rest of his likely Democratic 2020 opponents.

Trump currently leads Warren 50% to 37%, Sanders 51% to 38%, Buttigieg 49% to 38%, and Bloomberg 49% to 37%.

In Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, Trump holds narrower leads over all five of his most likely Democratic 2020 opponents.

In March, Biden led Trump in Pennsylvania by seven points, but now trails him by five, 46% to 41%. Warren trails Trump by seven points, 47% to 40%, while Trump holds a double-digit lead over Bernie Sanders, 48% to 38%. Trump has smaller leads over Pete Buttigieg, 46% to 40%, and Mike Bloomberg, 45% to 41%.

A separate poll, conducted by Emerson, which was released on Wednesday also shows Trump leading the four top Democratic contenders in Iowa.

Trump leads Biden by four points, 49% to 45%; Sanders by seven, 50% to 43%; Warren by seven, 50% to 43%; and Buttigieg by one, 46% to 45%.

In October, an Emerson poll showed Trump leading Biden by just two points, while a March poll by Emerson gave Biden a six-point lead.

The same polls showed Sanders leading Trump by two points in October and March, while Warren trailed Trump by two points in October and March.