Sa'ar as Likud chairman? New Right gains

Survey 103FM: If Gideon Sa'ar heads the Likud, the New Right will win 12 seats, Shas - 11 and UTJ - 9.

Arutz Sheva Staff ,

Gideon Saar
Gideon Saar
Flash 90

Since MK Gideon Sa'ar announced his intention to run for Likud chairman, a series of polls have determined that the Likud's power will weaken significantly under his leadership.

A new poll conducted for Radio 103FM reveals that the right-wing bloc led by Sa'ar will gain 60 seats - three seats more than the same bloc headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

According to the poll, the Likud-led Netanyahu would win 33 seats if the elections were held today. With Sa'ar at its head, the Likud would win 28 seats, five fewer seats.

However, the wandering votes within the bloc increase its power. The New Right doubles its power from 6 to 12 seats, Shas increases from 9 to 11 seats, and UTJ increases from 8 to 9 seats.

By all estimates, the scenario of flash primaries in the Likud is no longer relevant, so we will focus on the rest of the results assuming that Netanyahu is the Likud candidate in the next election: Blue and White wins 35 seats versus the 33 seats that Netanyahu wins in this poll. The Joint Arab List wins 13 seats, and Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union win four seats each.

And what about Liberman? In each of the scenarios, the power of Yisrael Beiteinu remains strong with 8 seats in the Netanyahu scenario or 9 seats in the Sa'ar scenario - and with the ability to tip the scale for either side, even after the next election. Looking for a clear decision? It's not visible on the horizon, even if we go to the polls for the third time in less than a year.

The survey was conducted Thursday through an existing online panel, among a randomized sample of 481 respondents, representing the entire Israeli adult population, aged 18 and over. The possible sampling error is approximately 4.1 percent relative to the various estimates.