Conservatives surge in election polls, widen lead over Labour

PM Johnson's Tories gain ground over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour, expanding Conservative lead well into double digits as Brexit party sinks.

David Rosenberg ,

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives widened their lead over the Labour Party, giving Johnson his best chance yet of gaining the broad majority he needs to carry out a quick Brexit from the European Union.

A series of new election polls released this week show the Conservative Party gaining an average of more than four points between the previous set of polls taken earlier this month and this week’s surveys.

With general elections set for December 12th, Prime Minister Johnson is hoping to secure a wide enough majority that will permit him to establish a new government without relying on the Democratic Unionist Party, and with enough Tory MPs in Parliament that he will be able to overcome opposition within his own party to a possible ‘hard Brexit’ – that is, a departure from the European Union without a deal establishing new trade and immigration rules between the UK and EU.

While the Conservatives have held a consistent lead over their nearest rivals – Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party – that lead has ranged from the low single-digits to mid double-digits.

In the four latest polls, however, the Conservatives gained ground, mostly at the expense of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which swept the May elections for Britain’s spots on the European Parliament.

With Johnson pushing for a timely departure from the EU, with or without a deal, however, supporters of the Brexit Party have swung to the Conservatives, giving the party an average of a 4.25-point boost across the four latest polls.

"For the past six months the Conservatives have consolidated their position amongst Leave voters,” Opinium pollster James Crouch said.

"Especially since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, week after week we have noticed more Brexit supporters falling in line behind the Conservatives.”

A Survation poll conducted from November 14th to the 16th gave the Conservatives a 14-point lead over Labour, 42 to 28. In the previous Survation poll released earlier this month, the Tories led Labour by just six points, 35 to 29. The Brexit Party fell in the poll from 10% to just 5% in the latest survey.

Labour fell by a single point, while the Greens gained ground, rising from 1% to 3%. The Liberal Democrats fell from 17% to 13% in the latest poll.

Another poll also conducted from November 14th to 16th, this time by Deltapoll and The Mail on Sunday, showed the Conservatives with a 15-point lead over Labour, 45 to 30, compared to a 12-point lead in the previous poll, 41 to 29.

A YouGov poll conducted from November 14th to the 15th gave the Conservatives an even wider lead of 17 points with 45%, compared to 28% for Labour. That’s a gain of three points compared to the previous poll, which showed the Tories with a 14-point lead over Labour, 42 to 28.

An Opinium poll, conducted from November 13th to the 15th projected the Conservatives netting 44% of the vote, compared to 28% for Labour, for a 16-point lead. Last week, Opinium showed the Tories with a 12-point lead, 41-29.

But how would the Conservative’s lead in the popular vote likely translate into seats in Parliament?

If the Conservatives receive 44% of the vote – the average of the four latest polls – compared to 28.5% for Labour, that would likely leave the Tories with a projected 393 seats, a net gain of 75, compared to 180 seats for Labour, a net loss of 82.