Could undecided voters deliver an election day surprise?

47% of likely voters still haven't finalized decision of who to vote for, 20% of Israelis uncertain if to vote at all, poll finds.

David Rosenberg,

Voting at the ballot box
Voting at the ballot box
Uri Lenz/Flash 90

Nearly half of all likely voters are still not certain of which party they will vote for in next week’s Knesset election, a new poll shows, with one out of five Israelis still undecided if they will even vote at all.

According to the poll, which was conducted by the Maagar Mohot polling agency and published by Israel Hayom Sunday afternoon, of all respondents who said they planned to vote in next week’s election, just 53% said they were firmly committed to the party they had indicated they planned to vote for – with an astonishing 47% saying they still could potentially change their vote on election day.

Thirty-one percent of respondents who said they planned to vote for a particular party said they felt fairly confident they’d vote for that party on election day, with 10% saying they felt somewhat confident, 3% who said they felt only slightly confident, 2% who said they feel barely confident at all, and 1% who don’t know.

Otzma Yehudit, which narrowly cleared the 3.25% electoral threshold in a Maagar Mohot poll for Israel Hayom last week, had the highest level of support from likely voters who said they were very certain they would vote for the party on election day, with 91% of Otzma’s supporters saying they were very confident of their vote.

The two haredi parties also had high levels of confidence among their voters, with 78% of United Torah Judaism voters saying they were very sure they’d back UTJ on election day, compared to 72% of Shas voters.

In addition, 20% of all respondents said they weren’t sure if they would turn out to vote on election day at all. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they were very confident they would vote, 22% said they were confident, 10% were somewhat confident, 3% slightly confident, 3% not very confident at all, and 4% who don’t know.

Of the 20% of respondents who were unsure if they would vote, 49% said they had no preference whatsoever for any of the parties running in the election, while 16% said they favored Blue and White, 14% said they favored the Likud, 5% said they favored the Democratic Union, 3% who said they backed Labor – with a similar number backing the Joint List and Yamina – and 2% who said they backed the United Torah Judaism party, with the same number saying they backed Shas and Otzma Yehudit.

The remaining parties all had relatively fewer committed voters, with just 56% of Blue and White’s voters saying they were very certain they would vote for the party, compared to 53% of Democratic Union voters, 50% of Yamina backers, 46% of Likud supporters, 45% of Yisrael Beytenu supporters, 39% of Labor supporters, and only 37% of voters who said they would back the Joint List.

While the poll found that among all likely voters, the Likud led Blue and White with 31 seats to 30 seats, Blue and White would lead if only voters who were very certain of their vote were counted.

The poll showed Yamina with eight seats, Otzma Yehudit with four, Yisrael Beytenu with 11, United Torah Judaism with seven, Shas with eight, the Joint List with 11, Labor with six, and the Democratic Union with four.

Counting only voters who were confident of their vote, however, gives Blue and White a lead of 31 seats, the poll found, compared to 30 seats for the Likud, six seats for Labor, eight for UTJ, eight for Yamina, five for Otzma Yehudit, 11 for Yisrael Beytenu, seven for Shas, four for the Democratic Union, and 10 for the Joint List.

Seat allocation based on all voters / voters certain of which party they will support

Likud – 31 / 30
Blue & White – 30 / 31
Joint List – 11 / 10
Yisrael Beytenu – 10 / 11
Yamina – 8 / 8
Shas – 8 / 7
UTJ – 7 / 8
Labor – 6 / 6
Otzma Yehudit – 4 / 5
Democratic Union – 4 /4