Poll: Likud 30, Blue & White 30, United Right 12

New poll shows alliance between right-wing parties wouldn't bolster Netanyahu's chances of forming new government.

David Rosenberg,

Netanyahu
Netanyahu
Yonatan Sindel/Flash 90

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would be unable to form a narrow right-wing government if new elections were held today, a new poll shows.

According to the poll, which was conducted by the Kantar agency and broadcast on Kan Sunday night, without the support of Avidgor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party, the right-wing – religious bloc would win just 57 seats if new elections were held today – four short of the necessary 61-seat majority to form a government.

The left-wing – Arab bloc, led by the center-left Blue and White party, would also come up short of a majority with just 53 seats, the poll found.

Both the Likud and Blue and White are projected to win 30 seats a piece – leaving the two short of a 61-seat majority for a unity government without the help of additional parties.

Yisrael Beytenu, which refused to join a new Netanyahu government after the April 9th elections unless the coalition agreed to pass Liberman’s haredi draft bill, has called for a unity government excluding haredi parties and the United Right.

If new elections were held today, the poll found, Yisrael Beytenu would win 10 seats – doubling its current strength.

The haredi parties would win a total of 15 seats, down from the current 16, with Shas falling from eight to seven seats, while the United Torah Judaism party would remain with eight.

The New Right party, which narrowly failed to clear the 3.25% electoral threshold, would now with eight seats with former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked at the helm, while the United Right would fall from five to four seats. The libertarian-leaning Zehut party would fail to cross the threshold, with just 1.2% of the vote.

On the left, the Labor party would receive eight seats, up from its current six, while Meretz would gain a single seat, rising from four to five.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s Israeli Democratic Party would fail to cross the threshold, receiving just 2.8% of the vote, short of the 3.25% minimum.

If the four Arab parties – the United Arab List, Ta’al, Hadash, and Balad – ran on a single ticket, the Joint List would receive 10 seats, the same number the parties won with two separate lists in April.

The poll also examined the possibility that the New Right and United Right could form an alliance and run on a single ticket, with the Israeli Democratic Party also forming an alliance with Meretz.

In such a scenario, the joint Meretz-IDP list would win nine seats, while Labor would win seven seats, instead of eight. The Blue and White party would also lose a mandate, falling from 30 to 29 seats.

A unified right-wing ticket combining the New Right and United Right – but not the Zehut party – would win 12 seats, the same number of mandates the parties would win if they ran separately.

But the Likud would lose two seats in such a scenario, falling from 30 to 28 seats.

The Zehut party would decline slightly, receiving 1.1% of the vote, instead of 1.2%.




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