ANALYSIS: Will Israel and Hamas finally reach a long term truce?

The proposed deal was brokered by Egypt and the United Nations and reportedly includes easing restrictions on imports from Israel, the full opening of the Rafah crossing on the Egypt Gaza border, reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority which would result in the PA taking over control of the coastal enclave, and elections to be held in Gaza within six months.

In a later phase, long-proposed humanitarian and infrastructure projects like the building of a port and airport would be executed with the help of the international community, according to a report by broadcaster Hadashot in Israelon Friday evening.

The last phase of the plan would entail negotiations about the return of captured Israeli citizens and the remains of IDF soldiers who fell during the 2014 summer war with Hamas in Gaza.

An unnamed Israeli official told Israel's TV Channel 10on Friday that Israel would not accept any agreement with Hamas that would not include the return of the Israelis in the first phase of the deal.

The official, in fact, reacted to pressure by the family of one of the slain IDF soldiers who, immediately after news broke about the ‘imminent’ agreement, issued a statement demanding the inclusion of the release of the held Israelis in any deal.

“Any deal that doesn’t include the return of Oron (Shaul), Hadar (Goldin), (Avera) Mengistu and the rest of our citizens won’t be worth the paper it’s written on, or whatever verbal promises were made for it,” the family of Oron Shaul wrote in an open letter to PM Netanyahu.

“For the deal to have practical and moral validity, its first stipulation must be the release of our sons,” the letter furthermore read adding “A deal without the return of our sons is a surrender that only serves as evidence of our country’s weakness.”

The Lebanese media outlet al-Akhbar was one of the Arab media who broke the news about the truce proposal on Friday and reported that Hamas must commit to end the so-called ‘Kite Jihad’ against Israel.

The leadership of Hamas, including arch terrorist Saleh al-Arouri, who has strong ties with Iran and lives in Lebanon, is now debating the proposal and has reportedly scheduled a vote in the so-called Shura council the de-facto government of Gaza.

Al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau, had never visited Gaza and received assurances from Egypt about his safety before he travelled to the Strip.

There are several problems with the truce proposal, which is reportedly backed by the United States.

First of all, Hamas is required to hand over security control over the Gaza Strip, something it refused to commit to in earlier negotiations about reconciliation between the Islamist terror organization and the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority.

It is therefore hard to see how it will different this time, because Hamas derives its raison d’etre from armed struggle against Israel.

Secondly, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas is reportedly against the deal and is not in a hurry to resume control over Gaza, because it would help Israel and give legitimacy to the upcoming new peace drive by the Trump Administration which includes rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.

Abbas is still angry at the Trump Administration for recognizing Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and for moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Israel’s capital.

For this reason, Fatah on Saturday warned Hamas against striking a deal with the government in Jerusalem because it would supposedly harm “national unity.”

Fatah spokesman Osama Qawasmeh said the agreement would be considered “a free gift to Israel and another coup against the Palestinian people and their homeland,” a reference to the violent power grab by Hamas in 2007 when the Islamist terror group ended PA-rule over the Gaza Strip.

The Fatah spokesman added that Palestinian reconciliation should be Hamas’ top priority not a deal with Israel about humanitarian aid in exchange for calm in southern Israel.

Hamas reacted on Sunday and said it was “disgusted” by Qawasmeh’s statement and accused Fatah of instigating tensions in order to thwart the efforts to reach a truce between Israel and the organization.

Hamas’ spokesman Abu Zuhri called upon Fatah to “realize that it lost the (2006) election” in the territories under PA control, while he reminded Abbas of the fact he has no mandate to rule the Palestinian Arabs because “his term in office has expired.”

Another problem with the proposed deal will be Hamas’ original demand that Israel frees Palestinian terrorists who serve jail time in Israeli prisons in exchange for the release of captured Israeli citizens and the remains of IDF soldiers.

Hamas will probably demand the release of a significant number of Palestinian inmates under any agreement, something which is unacceptable to the current Israeli government.

It may be too early to say the truce deal will meet the fate of all earlier agreements between Hamas and Israel and the earlier efforts to bring about reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

As things stand now, however, the rivaling Palestinian factions are on their way to prove former Kuwaiti Minister of Information Sami Abdullatif Al-Nesf right.

During a July 11 interview on Kuwaiti internet TV Al-Nesf said that “throughout history nobody has harmed the Palestinian cause more than Palestinian groups that compete in their extremism."

Yochanan Visser is an independent journalist/analyst who worked for many years as Middle East correspondent for Western Journalism.com in Arizona and was a frequent publicist for the main Dutch paper De Volkskrant. He authoreda book in the Dutch language about the cognitive war against Israel and now lives in Gush Etzion. He writes a twice weekly analysis of current issues for Arutz Sheva.