Trump gains on Clinton as election day nears

Clinton's trustworthy rating hits new low as Wikileaks releases continue to fuel scandals.

David Rosenberg ,

Donald Trump at stump speech in Wisconsin
Donald Trump at stump speech in Wisconsin

With less than two weeks left till Election Day November 8th, polls show Donald Trump gaining back some of the strength his campaign lost earlier this month, following the release of an
11-year old recording of Trump speaking off the record regarding his treatment of women.

Now, as Wikileaks releases leaks by FBI agents frustrated with bureau chief James Comey’s decision not to recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton, and documents released under the Freedom of Information Act fuel renewed criticism of the former Secretary of State, her seven-point lead is in decline.

According to the latest Fox News poll, Clinton’s honest and trustworthy ratings have hit a new all-time low. Just 30% of voters now say they believe the former Secretary of State is honest and trustworthy, compared to 67% who believe she is not.

Just 10 days ago many in the media declared the election over, as Mrs. Clinton had accumulated a 7.1 point lead over Mr. Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of polling, with some polls giving her a double-digit advantage.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight analysis and prediction website placed the odds of a Trump victory at just over 14% in mid-October.

Over the past two weeks, however, it appears that Republican voters who abandoned Trump following the third debate and scandal sparked by Trump’s lewd 2005 comments are now returning to the fold and signaling their support for their party’s standard bearer.

In the course of 10 days, Clinton’s lead in the average of polls has been cut from 7.1 points to 5.4.

This comes despite the late entrance of conservative independent candidate Evan McMullin, who, polls show is garnering a significant share of the vote in some GOP-leaning states like his native Utah.

Even polls which hitherto showed a significant lead for Clinton have shifted towards Trump.

The ABC/Washington Post poll, which earlier this month showed Clinton ahead by 12, 50 to 38, has now shrunk to a 6 point lead.

Gravis gives Clinton just a one-point advantage, while CVOTER International shows a two-point lead for the Democrat.

Trump’s improved position also extends to battleground states, handing him leads in Iowa and Ohio.

In Florida, Clinton’s lead in the average of polls has been cut since mid-October from a four-point lead to just one point six. Two of the most recent polls, ESA/Pulse Opinion Research and Dixie Strategies, show Trump ahead by a margin of three and four points respectively.

While Clinton still leads in North Carolina, three of the latest polls show a virtual dead-heat. The Democratic Public Policy Polling firm shows Clinton head by three, while the Republican firm Remington Research, gives Trump a lead of the same size. Monmouth shows Clinton ahead by just one point – well within the margin of error.

Monmouth shows Trump ahead by a single point in Arizona – a traditionally red state with a significant Hispanic population that Mrs. Clinton hopes will propel her to victory there in November.