Haredi party trumps Labor in latest poll

Jewish Home, United Torah Judaism surge past Zionist Union, Yesh Atid pulls into statistical dead-heat with Likud.

David Rosenberg ,

MK Ya'akov Litzman
MK Ya'akov Litzman
Miriam Alster/Flash 90

Less than two months after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu secured the support of Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party, expanding his coalition from 61 to 67 seats, a new poll shows a dramatic shift in support – and the possibility of a Lapid-led government.

The poll, conducted by Geocartographia for Kol HaZman, shows support for the current coalition fairly stable, with the six coalition members winning a combined 68 seats in the poll, compared to the 67 they currently hold.

Nevertheless, the survey showed a dramatic shift of support between coalition members and among opposition parties.

The ruling Likud party would, according to the poll, plummet from 30 seats won in 2015, to 21 mandates.

Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, on the other hand, would surge, rising from 11 seats to 20, beating its previous high of 19 mandates won in 2013.

Yesh Atid’s impressive showing in the poll marks a continuation of an upward trend since last year’s election. If the trend remains consistent, Lapid could very well become a viable candidate for Prime Minister.

Much of Yesh Atid’s increase comes at the expense of the Zionist Union – a joint ticket including the Labor and HaTnua parties – which would fall from 24 mandates to a paltry 10.

Another beneficiary of the Zionist Union’s decline is the far-left Meretz party, which would surge from five mandates to nine.

Also noteworthy is the surprising level of support for the haredi United Torah Judaism party, which would double in strength, from 6 seats to 12, by far above the party’s previous peak of 7 mandates in 2013.

The other haredi faction, Shas, on the other hand would continue its decline, barely passing the minimum electoral threshold with just four seats.

The Jewish Home party also enjoys a significant bump in the Geocartographia poll, doubling in strength from 8 seats to 16, mostly at the expense of the Likud. That would make the party a close third, just four seats behind Yesh Atid and five behind the Likud.

The predominantly Arab Joint List party would remain with 13 seats.

Despite gaining the Defense Ministry, Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party gained no ground in the survey, remaining stable at six seats.

Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu, which in other recent polls has suffered serious losses, retains most of its strength, dipping from 10 to 9 mandates despite the surge for his "centrist" rival Lapid.