Israel’s Trump card
Israel’s Trump card

After an eight year chill in the U.S.-Israel relationship, the election of Donald Trump as president offers Israel a unique opportunity to win back the U.S. as an ally. But it will take courage on Israel’s part to help shape this outcome.

The president-elect is in a precarious position. Some half of Americans revile him, and a large number of influential members of the Republican and conservative elite – the so-called “NeverTrump” faction – are now invested in his failure, if only to justify their implacable opposition during the electoral campaign.

At the same time, many foreign countries, particularly in Western Europe, China – and of course Mexico -- are wary of the Republican. He won’t be getting the same invitation to Oslo that Obama got after his election for ushering in the era of world peace the Nobel Committee prematurely anticipated.

Besides the intense opposition, Trump himself has set very high expectations for “mak[ing] America great again.” The new president will need some political victories, and Israel can give him a policy win that will play well in the U.S. To explain how, here’s a draft letter that Israel’s foreign ministry can feel free to edit:

“Dear Donald,

"We know that under your leadership, America will be turning its attention to fixing its cities, highways bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals. You have also made it clear that foreign countries will need to expect less in aid and contribute more to America’s and their common defense.

"We read you loud and clear. America needs to muster its resources for domestic projects. Under the circumstances, it would be wrong of us to accept America’s generous newly negotiated $3.8 billion a year aid package. We want to thank the American people for its unprecedented generosity over the years, which greatly assisted our common defense aims in a troubled region at a time when Israel was forced by circumstances to devote a quarter of its GDP to military expenditures. Today, we’ve reduced that to about 6%, still double the U.S. rate, but manageable.

"What Israel needs most of all today is to take a page from your playbook and increase domestic building – it’s hard for average Israeli wage earners to afford housing, something that can be greatly relieved through development of inland towns and cities in Judea and Samaria. Externally, we need reliable allies based on shared interests. Together, let us turn a new page in our relationship based on our shared values and shared interests rather than shared resources, though we will never forget that America – alone among the nations of the world -- was there for us when we most needed her.”

Why is this sudden policy change important? The President-elect has made many promises that will be difficult to achieve, as they depend on the cooperation of those who oppose these policies. For example, no Mexican leader would remain politically viable were he to comply with American demands to pay for a wall on their common border. Israel, by “giving up” America’s largesse, grants the White House a valuable political victory and purchases for itself room to maneuver in the conduct of its own internal affairs. What’s more, turning down an aid package that requires 100% of the funds be used for purchase of U.S. armaments would also strengthen Israel’s domestic arms industry and boost employment.

But more importantly, the aid package is a net loser for Israel. The late economist Milton Friedman famously quipped, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” American presidents of both parties have increasingly watered down their pro-Israel stances to one of neutrality between Israel and its enemies, or worse. A new president whose first claim to fame was a book called “The Art of the Deal,” is not invulnerable to the temptation to demonstrate his negotiation prowess at Israel’s expense. Rather than circumspectly say nothing about the $3.8 billion in annual aid – despite Trump’s statements opposing foreign aid – Israel would be wise to befriend America’s largely unloved new leader at this early opportunity, emphasizing that both nations share a common desire to enhance their people’s general welfare through domestic building.

As for the outgoing president, rumor has it that Obama is planning a parting betrayal of Israel by allowing a land-for-bupkis resolution promoted by Palestinians and a UN-member ally to pass by not using America’s Security Council veto, as the U.S. has customarily done in the case of anti-Israel resolutions. It would be only the millionth proof that the Palestinians are not interested in peace. Israel shouldn’t expend diplomatic effort on countering Obama’s knife in the back. The president’s eight years of efforts, domestic and foreign, will vanish like vapor on a January winter in Washington once his presidency ends, leaving behind all branches of government controlled by the GOP.

Rather, Israel should use the occasion to declare the peace process officially dead. And it should use the coming four, or possibly eight, years to accelerate the Jewish state’s path toward independence. Israelis like to think they are beyond the exile mentality characteristic of diaspora Jews, but their leaders’ dependence on the good will of foreign powers belies this assumption. Israel has just been handed a unique opportunity to grow up – with all the pain and privileges that that entails.

The choice is Israel’s: Will it needlessly remain a dependent in return for its bottle, pacifier and the inevitable spanking, or will it set out on its own course?

Gil Weinreich is author of “Superpower,”newly released by Targum Press. The book examines Israel’s rising power, and the vital spiritual dimension underlying this shift, contrasting this experience with the hollowing-out trend, materially and morally, underway in the United States -- while making constructive suggestions for reversing this latter trend.