The Biden administration has warned the Iraqi government that failure to prevent any Iranian-led attack on Israel from Iraqi territory could prompt Israel to launch a retaliatory strike on Iraq, two US officials told Axios on Tuesday.
The US is aiming to deter any potential Iranian attacks on Israel and is concerned that an attack originating from Iraq could further escalate the already tense regional situation.
According to Israeli and U.S. intelligence, Iran is planning a major attack on Israel from Iraqi territory in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Iranian assets on October 25, US and Israeli officials said.
Since that Israeli strike, officials say, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been transporting drones and ballistic missiles to Shiite militias in Iraq and has been planning a coordinated strike on Israel.
The US has issued both public and private warnings to Iran to refrain from such an attack, but, as one US official noted, Iran has yet to show a willingness to de-escalate.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan raised the issue with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday, a US official told Axios, warning about the planned Iranian attack.
The following day, Secretary of State Antony Blinken also discussed the threat with al-Sudani. Both Sullivan and Blinken urged the Iraqi prime minister to halt Shiite militia attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria as well as against Israel, which have increased in recent weeks.
Sullivan and Blinken also delivered a clear message: the Iraqi government must not permit any Iranian-led attack on Israel from Iraqi territory, the officials told Axios.
"If you don't, we won't be able to stop Israel from striking Iraq," one US official relayed as part of the Biden administration’s message to al-Sudani.
Neither the White House nor the State Department provided comments, and the Iraqi embassy in Washington, D.C., did not respond.
Reports last week indicated that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has instructed the Supreme National Security Council to prepare for an attack on Israel.
According to a report in The New York Times this past Thursday, Khamenei decided to attack after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defense systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure, and a main port in the south.
An Israeli military source later told CNN that Israel is at a “high level of readiness” for a response from Iran.
On Sunday, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Israel's stance regarding ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon could influence the "type and intensity" of his country’s response to the recent Israeli strikes on Iranian soil.
“If they reconsider their behavior, accept ceasefires (in Gaza and Lebanon) and stop killing the region's oppressed and innocent people, it may impact the type and intensity of our response,” he claimed.