Samuel Rosner, a writer on the United States, a commentator for Kan News and editor of the website HaMidad, estimates that the close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will continue until the end of the vote count.
"I suppose it's going to be close to the end. We assume, according to the polls, that it's a close race and there doesn't seem to be a dramatic change between what we see today and Election Day. Most Americans have already decided what they're going to do, and those who haven't decided may simply not come out to vote. One of the things that the candidates are fighting now is to make sure that people who might vote for them don't stay home," said Rosner in an interview with the newspaper B'Sheva.
In his view, the current election will be characterized primarily by the public's attitude toward Donald Trump, with Harris a less significant factor. "Harris's presence is almost generic. She is the Democratic candidate, she is a reasonable Democratic candidate, and anyone who wants a Democratic candidate will get one this time around. In the end, we are still in the Trump era, and the main question in American politics is whether you think Trump is a necessary revolution, or whether you think he is a danger to democracy and the existence of America."
"We are already in a third election cycle where the situation is identical. If we look at the numbers of 2016, 2020 and 2024, these are the same numbers, with millimeter shifts. These shifts will decide the election. In the end it is two camps defined by one question: Donald Trump. We are in the Trump era, he is the center. Donald Trump offers Americans something that has not been offered to them in many years. One can love it or hate it, but he is considered a radical candidate. If there were no Trump, a more pliable Republican might have won much more easily. Today Trump is the man who defines the race," Rosner emphasizes.
He notes that he listened to the three-hour interview that Trump gave to Joe Rogan in the United States, and from there it was possible to understand where Trump was heading. "They talked about everything possible, from policy to wrestling. You hear how he talks about tariffs and goes back to the proposals of the late 19th century of President McKinley from that time. He offers these proposals to the Americans and succeeds in convincing a very large audience that this is what America needs now."
"Generally speaking, the economy under Trump was in better shape than under Biden. It should be noted that Biden suffered from the coronavirus effect, and the American economy has recovered since. The thing is that the public doesn't understand this or doesn't feel it. In other words, the American public is dissatisfied with Biden's economy, and instinctively it is clear that it is interested in a change of government," adds Rosner.
As to whether there is a preferred candidate from Israel's perspective, he answers that "The right claims the answer is very clear, but I'm not sure that in light of the current presidency even leaders from the center-left prefer Kamala Harris to Donald Trump. He was a very comfortable president for Israel in his first four years, and also brought significant achievements. The Abraham Accords, for example, are credited to the Trump administration, after Democratic administrations had talked and talked about peace agreements for thirty years and brought almost nothing."
"On the other hand, we know that Trump is an unpredictable man with a big ego. If at a certain moment he wants something from Israel and Israel does not cooperate, he can be much more brutal than the Democratic administrations," he warns.
"It seems to me that the first consideration, in many respects, is the question of who will let Israel fight freely and who might try to impede it. In that sense, Israel is more comfortable with Trump at the moment, and his presence is more threatening to its enemies. If you try to get into the heads of the Iranians and they are debating whether or not to attack Israel again, under what circumstances would they do it more easily? If Trump wins or Harris? If Trump is elected president they will give it more thought, because they know he is unpredictable and will be wary of his reactions," he concludes.