As of Sunday, former US President Donald Trump has, for the first time this election cycle, surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast.
The forecast now gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential race, while Harris holds a 42 percent chance.
From late August until recently, the forecast consistently showed Harris with a stronger position, estimating her chances at around 54 to 56 percent, compared to Trump's 44 to 46 percent. However, by early October, these figures began to even out, with both candidates’ odds approaching 50 percent.
This change in the forecast aligns with Trump’s improved polling numbers in key battleground states, particularly Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously leaned slightly toward Harris.
Trump already held narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Out of the seven crucial swing states expected to decide the election, Pennsylvania is the only one where Harris still holds a polling advantage.
Despite Trump’s gains, the race is still considered a toss-up, as polling in all seven swing states falls within the margin of error.