Dr. Aaron Lernerheads IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it crystal clear that there is no substitute for a continued presence of IDF forces on the Philadelphi Corridor, actively engaged in the very physical activity associated with detecting and destroying smuggling tunnels.
That's both tunnels being actively excavated or rebuilt AND tunnels which already exist.
I mention "tunnels which already exist" because the sensors being proposed as a substitute for boots on the ground detect the sound of excavation activity. These sensors wouldn't have detected the huge vehicle tunnel discovered two weeks ago because it wasn't under construction. And there's no telling how many more such tunnels have yet to be discovered.
To be clear: Anyone with the most basic understanding of the situation knows that it would be virtually impossible for Israeli to seriously act on information regarding smuggling tunnels if the IDF isn't deployed on the Philadelphi Corridor.
Right now, there are reports of constant electricity failures in the Philadelphi Corridor whose source is the Egyptian side of the tunnel. Those reports claim that electricity company workers are being bribed by Hamas to cause the blackouts, during which sensors don't work and the terrorists attempt to rebuild tunnels and smuggle in arms.
Let's walk through this: Israel has retreated from the Gaza Strip and a gizmo detects a tunnel.
#1. Egypt denies that the tunnel detected exists and then explains that even if it exists it doesn't reach Egypt and if it reaches Egypt it is old and was shut down.
#2. The CIA backs the Egyptians and Israel is warned not to insult peace partner Egypt by pursuing the issue.
#3. "Sources" in the Israeli security cabinet, the media and retired military figures proclaim that: "The IDF will be able to deal with whatever is smuggled into Gaza through the tunnels and besides, Hamas is deterred by the destruction and losses it endured in the last round."
Netanyahu didn't go public on this as a negotiating tactic to raise the value of the Philadelphi Corridor "bargaining chip." He went public because he wanted to be painted into a corner for Israel's survival.
The army is against leaving the Corridor.
But he is stuck with a negotiating team which seems to behave like a Wall Street dealmaker, interested more in the commission than the quality of the deal.
And he faces a room full of senior members of the Israeli security establishment also determined to make a deal come what may.
Are they that stupid? Or are these tic-tac-toe players engaged in three-dimensional chess?
Ok. I will say it: There are people in the room who think that removing Netanyahu from power is a necessary condition for Israel's survival. There may be even some who are convinced that it is a sufficient condition. And that’s exactly what they think Israel’s agreeing to withdraw for the Philadelphi Corridor will do.
In a way, that explanation is more comforting than the possibility that these guys simply aren't the sharpest tools in the shed.
But they prove that keeping Netanyahu in power now may be the only way Israel can survive.
I appreciate that it is very hard for Netanyahu to buck all of these people, and that these people are going to do everything in their power using every means possible to force Netanyahu to fold.
I wouldn't be surprised if the negotiators tell their interlocutors what they would accept if not for the instructions from Netanyahu, and then return to Jerusalem with marching orders from the White House backing them.
The "kitchen" will be glowing with heat when the negotiators return, but Netanyahu is the one who wanted to be in the kitchen.