Prime Minister Netanyahu
Prime Minister NetanyahuYonatan Sindel/Flash90

A new CIA analysis states that Prime Minister Netanyahu is unlikely to agree to US demands regarding the war in Gaza, including accepting the proposed ceasefire deal.

CNN published the analysis while Israel faces steadily increasing pressure from the Biden administration to accept the deal and bring the war in Gaza to an end. The decision to reject American pressure represents another step in the growing divide between Netanyahu and Biden, which has been eroding relations between the two countries for several months already.

Alongside the refusal to accept the American proposal, Netanyahu is also rejecting pressure from various other political figures in Israel, who have been insisting that he provide clearer criteria for when the war will end. He has repeatedly stated that the goals of the war are the recovery of the hostages and the destruction of Hamas, but has offered little further definition.

The lack of detail has drawn significant criticism from Minister Benny Gantz, who is expected to resign from the government in protest in the near future. Gantz had joined the government early in the war with the aim of creating a more unified Cabinet to pass wartime legislation, but has since been increasingly critical of the management of the war by Netanyahu. His running mate Gideon Sa'ar has already resigned from the government for similar reasons.

At the same time, Netanyahu has also rebuffed demands from further right figures such as Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Both ministers, as well as members of each of their parties, have called fore more extreme steps in the war both in the north and south. Notable among these was a call a few months ago to annex the Gaza Strip to Israel and begin the construction of permanent civilian communities, rather than allow displaced Palestinians to attempt to rebuild cities destroyed by the IDF offensive.

More recently, both Ministers have declared that they will resign from the government if the American ceasefire deal is accepted. If the resignation includes withdrawing support in the Knesset plenum, Netanyahu's coalition would lose its current majority, feasibly forcing the country into parliamentary elections or a legislative deadlock as no party can obtain the majority needed to pass bills.

In such a scenario, Netanyahu is expected to approach Gantz and Sa'ar to replace Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, along with Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman.