Iran's Supreme Leader has been behaving rather strangely since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in Vienna on July 14: two days after he signed the agreement, his Id el Fitr speech was business as usual – that is, filled with the same old hatred and hostility towards the West.
The following list of the main catchphrases in Khamenei's speech is accompanied by my explanations of their real meaning:
- "America is the enemy." - i.e. If you think for a minute, my fellow Iranians, that America has become our friend as a result of the agreement, don't get carried away. America was our enemy, has remained our enemy and will always be our enemy. The agreement has not affected that unchanging situation.
- "The Islamic Republic will never give in to the dictates of the enemy and will not compromise on keeping its defensive abilities intact." - i.e.If there is anyone in America, Europe or the rest of the world who thinks that this agreement will bring an end to our nuclear program, he is sorely mistaken; Iran will not relinquish the achievements its scientists have attained with the help and generosity of Allah.
- "Whether or not the final version of the agreement is ratified, we will not stop supporting our friends in the region. The oppressed Palestinian nation, the oppressed Yemenis, the Syrian people and their government, the Iraqi people and their government, the oppressed people of Bahrain, the freedom fighters in Lebanon and Palestine – all of them will continue to enjoy our support." - i.e. We will not stop our interference in the affairs of the nations in the region, and we will not cease arming, funding, training and encouraging terror organizations.
- "We have not discussed the different international and regional issues with America." - i.e. We are free to do whatever we feel like doing to any country in the region and in the world, and America will not succeed in forcing us to keep the rules of what is known as the "international community." We did not agree to put that in the agreement and are therefore free to do whatever we wish.
- "[The Americans claim] that they have succeeded in dragging the Iranian government to the negotiating table, in overpowering it and preventing it from attaining nuclear arms and the like. The truth is different." - i.e. The president of the United States is trying to sell the agreement as a way to prevent Iran's nuclear arming. He is mistaken and he is misleading America - we will do whatever we want to do.
- "We do not see war as a blessing and will not initiate one, but if a war breaks out here, it is America, the criminal invader who will be the loser." - i.e. If there is someone in America or anywhere else who thinks there is a military option against us, he is wrong, and we will defeat him just as we will defeat America.
The question that arises of itself as a result of this speech is why Khamenei feels the need to speak with such hostility against the United States when he knows that there is so much opposition to the agreement in America, and that it still has to be ratified by Congress. Why should the Supreme Leader scatter proclamations that could increase American opposition to the agreement? Why is he proving that all the objections to the agreement are well-founded? And why is he embarrassing the President Obama, who put himself on the line for this agreement?
The answer to this question is somewhat complicated, but clear to anyone who is aware of the internal situation in Iran.
Iran's population is young in comparison to the population of Europe. More than half of Iran's citizens are under 35, meaning that they were not yet born when the Shah was deposed at the end of 1978. They did not suffer from his despotism, and therefore do not understand why they have to suffer from the Ayatollahs' despotic rule. The majority of Iran's population is totally secular, their lives far removed from Islam, Sharia and tradition. The religious oppression under which they are forced to live distances them even more from religion. They have developed anti-religious feelings, and the more they are oppressed by religion, the farther they stray from its strictures.
Sexual promiscuity in Iran is widespread and stems in part from the fact that Iranians marry late. A 2008 survey showed that the average age at which men marry is almost 40, while the women's average is 35. The government hands out free contraceptives, preferring that alternative to dealing with sexually-transmitted diseases, unwanted pregnancies and abandoned babies. Gays, both male and female, flourish in Iran's cities, while the web is filled with thousands of porno sites in Persian, most of them managed from Iran.
Iran's mosques are almost entirely deserted. As a result, the Supreme Leader gives his Friday speech in Tehran University, with the students forced to attend and cheer when they receive a signal to do so. In 2009, after "election" results showed Ahmadinejad victorious for the second time, massive mostly-student-based demonstrations exploded in the larger cities. These were suppressed by violent measures: men were shot, women arrested and raped by jailers. Later it was discovered that the regime had prepared two aircraft for smuggling out the heads of state, just in case the demonstrations got out of control and succeeded in toppling the Ayatollahs.
The agreement between the world powers and Iran, signed on July 14, 2015, has provided new hope to many of Iran's citizens, especially its restless young adults. The first reason for this hope is the belief that the billions of dollars that were denied the people will soon arrive in the country, improving the economic situation and bettering everyday life.
This optimism raises hopes that along with an improved economy, the human rights situation will also change for the better, allowing for more political freedom and less governmental oppression and corruption.
Khamenei knows full well which way the young adult population's wind is blowing and fears that the agreement will set off a chain reaction where that sector will want to translate the economic thaw into a loosening of political, religious, cultural and personal restraints. In order to deal with this trend, Khamenei feels that must either find or invent an evil and threatening external enemy that will get all the Iranians, mainly the youth, to forget all other pressing issues and flock to the Ayatollahs' leadership. America is still the enemy, still threatening Iran, and the only way to survive the machinations of its wicked Western government is if every Iranian supports the Ayatollahs' regime.
This is the true underlying reason for Khamenei's incitement. He needs an external threat from "The Big Satan" because he is afraid of the secular majority in his country who do not support the Ayatollahs, not even the so-called "Reformist Ayatollahs" among them - a euphemism, at best, for those whose reforms are simply a way to mask their goal of perpetuating the Ayatollahs' reign without changing or replacing it.
It is worth noting that Iran is an artificial country made up of six ethnic groups who do not connect with one another: Persians (60%), Azarim, Kurds, Turkmans, Bluchis and Arabs. Most of the population is Shiite, but the Bluchis and Kurds are Sunni and both groups are waging an ongoing guerilla war against the central regime in order to gain independence, exacting a price in dead Iranian soldiers and Revolutionary Guards. The world does not know about this warfare because journalists are banned from reaching the war zones and photographing the terrible events that keep happening there.
Since the Iran Agreement does not provide a foolproof way to check that the Ayatollahs are definitely not developing nuclear arms, we can conclude that sooner or later Iran will develop nuclear weapons in secret, if it has not done so already. Nuclear weapons in the hands of the Ayatollahs pose a danger to the entire world because of the apocalyptic views of Shiite Islam and because of the Islamist ambition for global hegemony. Islamic religious tradition allows for the use of force and threats. Nuclear weapons will be a tool that allows the Ayatollahs to carry out their Shiite Islamist agenda and move on to control the world.
The only way to completely remove the danger of Iran's nuclear weapons is to abolish the rule of the Ayatollahs. Now that the world has done away with the economic sanctions weapon, there are only two ways left to achieve that goal: one, to encourage the young, secular adult majority to fight the regime and two, aid the minority groups in destabilizing the regime and undercutting its unity.
Iran's rulers are weak, afraid of the people, looking for outside enemies, lost in their own extremist rantings that are an attempt to hide their weaknesses. It would not be very difficult to overthrow the present regime. The moral justification for this is solid: the Ayatollah's have been undermining Lebanon's government since 1980 and recently, doing the same in Yemen. They supply arms, weapons and money to Assad, the mass murderer, and are largely responsible for the blood spilled in Iraq. They are behind terror worldwide, and have justly earned the world's desire to be rid of them and send them to a place where they cannot inflict any more damage on the human race. That, of course, would be the end of the Iranian nuclear weapons issue.
The questions that remain are straighforward. Does the world sees the dangers facing the world from the Iranian regime? Does it realize the real situation in Iran, the reality described in this article? And does the world have the courage to do what is needed to solve, in passing, the Iranian nuclear problem?
Translated by Arutz Sheva Op-ed and Judaism editor, Rochel Sylvetsky