The Blue and White party continues to hold a wide, consistent lead over the Likud, a new poll shows – regardless of who leads the right-wing bloc.
According to a new poll conducted by Makor Rishon and Panels Politics’ pollster Menachem Lazar, if new elections were held today with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the helm of the Likud, the Blue and White party would win 38 seats, up from its current 33.
The Likud, by comparison, would win 34 seats under Netanyahu’s leadership, up from the 32 it won in September.
In this scenario, the right-wing bloc would gain slightly, rising from its current 55 seats to 56, though neither side would gain a decisive advantage. The left-wing – Arab bloc would retain its 57 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu, which has called for a unity government, would fall from eight seats to seven.
The predominantly Arab Joint List party would gain one seat, rising from 13 to 14 seats, while Labor-Gesher would fall from six to five seats. The far-left Democratic Union, a merger of Meretz and the Israel Democratic Party, would fail to cross the threshold, the poll projected, losing all five of its seats. The Democratic Union received the support of just 2.1% of respondents, below the 3.25% needed to enter the Knesset.
Shas would lose one seat, the poll projected, fall from nine to eight, while United Torah Judaism would remain stable at seven seats.
The New Right party, which won three seats as part of the ‘Yamina’ joint list with the Jewish Home and National Union, would rise to seven seats, while the Jewish Home-National Union would fail to cross the threshold, losing all four of its seats.
The Jewish Home-National Union list would receive just 2.7% of the vote, the poll found, short of the 3.25% needed to enter the Knesset.
The Otzma Yehudit faction, which received 1.88% of the vote in September, would get just 1.6% if new elections were held today.
If Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar defeats Netanyahu in next week’s Likud leadership election, however, the right-wing bloc would rise to 60 seats – just one short of an absolute majority in the 120-member Knesset – thanks to the Jewish Home-National Union clearing the electoral threshold.
The left-wing bloc would, in this scenario, fall to 53 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu would again receive seven seats.
Blue and White would win 34 seats when running against Sa’ar, while the Likud would fall to 30 seats, down from its current 32.
The Joint Arab List would win 14 seats, with Labor-Gesher again falling to five seats.
The far-left Democratic Union would again fail to cross the threshold, this time receiving 2.6% of the vote.
Shas would win eight seats, as would UTJ, while the New Right would surge to 10 seats.
The Jewish Home-National Union would narrowly cross the electoral threshold with four seats, while Otzma Yehudit would rise to 2%, still below the threshold.
The poll was conducted on December 18th, polling 1,0001 Israelis, including 851 Jews and 150 non-Jews. It has a margin of error 3.4%
Results if Netanyahu leads Likud/If Sa'ar leads/Current strength:
Blue & White: 38 / 34 / 33
Likud: 34 / 30 / 32
Joint List: 14 / 14 / 13
Yisrael Beytenu: 7 / 7 / 8
Shas: 8 / 8 / 9
UTJ: 7 / 8 / 7
New Right: 7 / 10 / 3
Jewish Home-NU: 0 / 4 / 4
Democratic Union: 0 / 0 / 5
Otzma Yehudit: 0 / 0 / 0