Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would cruise to a fifth term – and fourth consecutive term – as premier if new elections were held today, a new poll shows, buoyed by the launch of a new political party led by a former IDF chief of staff.
According to a poll conducted by Maagar Mohot for Makor Rishon, ex-IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz’s entry into politics at the helm of the new ‘Achi Yisrael’ party would most heavily impact opposition parties, including Yesh Atid and the Zionist Union, while leaving the Likud largely unaffected.
In recent months there has been speculation that the former IDF chief would form a new center or center-left faction, despite appeals by members of the Zionist Union’s Labor faction that he join their list.
The new Achi Yisrael party is expected to include Yerucham Mayor Michael Biton, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's daughter Adina Bar-Shalom, Maj. Gen. (res.) Gideon Shefer, Brigadier General (res.) Ruth Yaron, who served as IDF Spokeswoman, and Moti Shklar, who previously served as Israel Broadcasting Authority chief.
Achi Yisrael would net eight seats if new elections were held today, the Maagar Mohot poll shows, most of which would come at the expense of the Zionist Union and Yesh Atid parties.
The Likud, which won 30 mandates in 2015, would rise to 31 if new elections were held today, while the Zionist Union, which currently has 24 seats, would fall to just 8 if Achi Yisrael ran in the next election.
Former Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party would gain seats, rising from 11 mandates to 14. That, nevertheless, marks a significant decline for the party in comparison to recent polls, which showed Yesh Atid winning 18-20 seats.
The Jewish Home party would gain 5 mandates, rising from 8 seats to 13, while the predominantly Arab Joint List would fall from 13 seats to 11.
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu faction would win five seats – a loss of one seat compared to its showing in 2015. The party has, however, held just five seats in the Knesset since MK Orly Levy split off from Yisrael Beytenu in 2016.
Levy, who has announced plans to run at the helm of a new faction, would win eight mandates if new elections were held today.
Among the haredi factions, the Sephardic Shas party would barely clear the 3.25% minimum threshold with four mandates, a loss of three seats compared to 2015, while United Torah Judaism would remain stable at six mandates.
The far-left Meretz party would win six seats, a gain of one mandate.