Accident Prone

(Israelnationalnews.com) Olmert's skills as a political survivor cannot forever obscure his dismal record as Prime Minister.

Recently a foreign journalist asked me if Olmert's multitude of criminal investigations would lead to his downfall.  I had to tell him that the smart money in Jerusalem was betting they wouldn't.  Even if Olmert is indicted, the letter of the law says he doesn't have to quit until convicted.  One can expect Olmert to hang on to office until led out in handcuffs by the police.  The shame and self-doubt to which ordinary mortals are prey, and which are so essential an element of civilized society, seem to have no part in his makeup.

"So does that mean Olmert is likely to see out the end of his term?" my foreign journalist asked.  "Not necessarily," I replied.  "We're all fascinated today by the question of how long he can hang on in office because he made an immense blunder last summer.  The real question is whether he possesses the judgment required of a Prime Minister. What if he blunders again?"

Olmert's sheer skill at day-to-day survival has won him a reputation for political wizardry that translates into grudging respect.  Boy, he must be smart, people think to themselves, to be so universally despised and yet hang on to office.  In part, Olmert's success lies in getting us to focus on the drama of his continued tenure in office, rather than on how he actually uses the authority vested in him.

Olmert's next blunder seems not far off.  It came about in typical Olmert fashion.  He needed to keep certain people happy:  Condoleeza Rice, who bullies him; Attorney General Menahem Mazuz, a left-wing radical (he favors left-wing draft dodgers but prosecutes right wingers) who will decide whether to indict him; and a few important journalists and intellectuals, who might help shore up his reputation if he subscribes their dreams of withdrawal and peace.  Above all, he had to present himself to the public as doing something.  To accomplish all this he had to commit himself to making Abu Mazen happy.

Trumpeting the prospect of peace, Olmert rushed in where any reasonably prudent angel would fear to tread.  The consensus among Israeli security experts is that Abu Mazen's potential for actually ruling Palestinian society is nil.  Right now he is in effect an Israeli puppet, sustained exclusively by the Israeli bayonets against which he rails.  If Israel were to hand him an independent Palestinian state, Hamas would have his head within a month. 

Promising to give up everything, including Jerusalem, Olmert failed to appreciate the adverse political forces he was arousing.  He did not foresee the pressure that would be brought to bear on his coalition partners, Shas and Yisrael Beitenu, and within his own Kadima party.  Yet he rashly gave his word to Condoleeza Rice to deliver, and she is squeezing him to do just that.  The Annapolis conference, if it ever happens, seems likely to end in an Israeli debacle.  Nothing will be achieved, and everybody will be angry at Israel.

Olmert's behavior appears to be based on a shockingly autistic world view:  There are no real issues.  Nothing really matters to anybody but their public image and private perks.  The Prime Minister's office puts at his disposal immense resources to manipulate and satisfy personal ambitions, a kind of city hall writ large.  Surely, with such advantages, this master of brokering and massaging can manage anything?

Alas, no.  For Ehud Olmert's savvy as a politician is matched by his utter incompetence as a statesman.  He appears to have no real comprehension of the large issues he deals with.  He recklessly embraces projects which anyone with the understanding of a child would shun.  He did so last summer, and he did so again this spring with his Abu Mazen peace accord gambit.  He seems to be doing so yet once more with the issue of a constitution, declaring on the first day of the Knesset's winter session that he will adopt a constitution that "everyone, I mean everyone, agrees to," this in a country deeply divided about the most fundamental issues. 

True, he did bomb something in Syria, with apparent success, but that was a single, isolated incident, not a major policy issue.  Moreover, in this case, exceptionally, Olmert learned about the issue and made his decision through the filter of professional intelligence and military advisers.  On issues he deals with himself, he gives the impression of being out of his depth, a bush leaguer deposited by serendipity in a place ordinarily reserved for the major leagues.

A master manipulator can make a serious mistake and survive.  Olmert, however, is on his way to acquiring a reputation for being an accident-prone prime minister, always botching the important issues.  That makes him a serious liability to his party and coalition colleagues.  Not to mention the rest of the country.