(IsraelNN.com) Presenting their new findings at several U.S. think tanks this week, the researchers reported that the 2004 Palestinian-Arab population was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian Authority (PA) officials.

The researchers expect the findings to have a significant impact on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies.

They found that the Arab resident population in January 2004 was 1.35 million in Judea/Samaria, and 1.07 million in Gaza.

The 1.4-million-person gap results from the fact that the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 1997 projections, not on actual population counts. So explained one of the research team members, Yoram Ettinger. The PBS used the PA's official 1997 census as a base population and assumed that the population would grow at an annual rate of 4-5% - higher than most of the world. When the research team reviewed PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, however, they found that the PBS' expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004.

"There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead of immigration, [Judea, Samaria and Gaza] experienced a steady net emigration," reported project leader Bennett Zimmerman. "When the PBS' incorrect assumptions were applied over many years, the error in population forecast compounded exponentially."

The research team discovered:
* Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
* Net Emigration: Instead of the large annual immigration of 40,000 or more originally projected by the PA, Judea, Samaria and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration, averaging some 10,000 a year over the past nine years.
* Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel's population survey were included in the PA survey.
* Inclusion of non-residents: PA Arabs with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
* Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.
* The PA's Central Election Commission press release of October 14, 2004 acknowledged that 200,000 of the Arabs counted were living abroad, and that the number of eligible voters living in the areas in question was only 1.3 million.

The Study can be seen at "http://www.pademographics.com" and "http://www.aei.org."

The American-based project was led by Bennett Zimmerman, a former Strategy Consultant with Bain & Company, with historian Dr. Roberta Seid and Dr. Michael Wise, an expert in mathematic modeling techniques. Yoram Ettinger, a consultant to members of Israel's Cabinet and Knesset, led the Israel research team, with members Brig.-Gen. (Ret.) David Shahaf, former Head of the Civil Administration; Prof. Ezra Zohar, who has published several research papers on demographics in Israel; Dr. David Passig, an expert in forecasting; and Avraham Shvut, who has tracked both Jewish and Arab population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza.

Ettinger told Arutz-7 today, "Our research was carefully reviewed by leading Washington demographer Dr. Nick Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute. He gave it a very positive grade, and even asked us to present it at his prestigious institute at a luncheon he hosted, and put it on his website. It has also been presented by a senior demographer at the Wilson institute in Washingon, and yesterday at the Heritage Foundation there, and today as well at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations."

He explained, "Our research is based chiefly on Arab sources other than the PA's Bureau of Statistics, such as the PA Ministry of Health and PA elections committees in 1996 and 2005, and these give us a very different picture than what the PA Bureau of Statistics would have us think – one that is consistent with the growth rate in Jordanian and other Arab countries. The unanimous conclusion of all these sources is that there has been a very dramatic drop in the Arab birthrate in Judea and Samaria."

"For instance," Ettinger said, "the PA Ministry of Health's figures show a sharp birthrate drop of 3.8% in 1997-98 to 2.4% in 2003. In addition, the number of children per woman dropped from 8 in 1998-99, to less than 4 in 2003. And possibly most significant is that the PA Bureau of Statistics, on which the demographic prophets of doom in Israel rely for their political plans, predicted that from 1997-2005 there would be an immigration into Judea and Samaria of 230,000 people – but this has no basis at all. We checked all the international crossings, and found that there has been an average departure of 10,000 a year from Judea and Samaria."

Arutz-7's Haggai Segal said, "But Prof. Sergio Della Pergola has dismissed your findings and said that the level is laughable."

Ettinger: "What can I do? He disagrees with the American experts I mentioned above who studied our findings for a long time... Part of the explanation for the sharp drop in births is that in recent years, the population has become less rural and more urban-poor. In addition, women are getting married 2-3 years later."

Demographer Prof. Arnon Sofer, who has published many dire demographic warnings in the past, told Arutz-7 that he has no respect for the findings presented above:
"Aside from all the bombastic words about professors and heritage and Washington and institutes, and the like, there is nothing there. I'll explain in short: I also think that the Palestinians are lying and have blown up their figures. So I went to the IDF census that was done in 1967, and then I consulted the figures for exits and entries and projected growth, and I checked and found that they lied by 400,000 [in each area]. This means that I'm willing to compromise with Yoram [Ettinger] and say that there are 1 million in Gaza, like he says, and not 1.4 million like the PA says, and that there are 1.9 million in Judea/Samaria, and not 2.3 million, like the PA says – but it doesn't matter; it's still a lot. And if we add the 1.2 million Israeli-Arabs – Palestinians – there are 4.1 million Arabs, whereas the number of Jews is about 5.2 million. So we're in trouble. We have a tiny minority in Gaza, and a small minority in Judea and Samaria, and problems in the Negev and Galilee, and we can't ignore it. Do you really think that birthrate would go down from 8 to 3.9 in just five years?! What is this nonsense?"

One of the U.S. team members, Dr. Michael Wise, an expert in mathematic modeling techniques, responded to this point on IsraelNationalRadio today: "These numbers are based on the PA's Ministry of Health, and similar birthrate drops have been found in Egypt, Jordan and Iran."

"Those who claim Jews will become a minority in the region are wrong," said Yoram Ettinger of the Israeli team. "Since 1967, Jews have maintained their 60% majority in Israel and the Territories and since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by 2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank."

This ratio seems likely to continue, says Dr. Wise, "given the declines in PA growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates, which are the highest among Western democracies."