Netanyahu in Knesset plenum
Netanyahu in Knesset plenumצילום: נועם מושקוביץ, דוברות הכנסת

The Likud is poised to gain additional seats in the Knesset in the next election – if Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu remains at the helm, a new poll has found.

According to a poll conducted by Ma’agar Mohot and published Wednesday morning by Israel Hayom, if new elections were held today, the Likud would, under its current leadership, rise from 30 seats to 34 mandates, expanding its margin over its nearest rival, Yesh Atid, which the poll projected would rise from 17 seats to 18.

The haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism factions would hold steady at nine and seven seats respectively, while Blue and White would rise from eight seats to nine, the same number it received in the last Ma’agar Mohot poll, released in late November.

The Joint Arab List is projected to retain its seven seats, while the United Arab List, a coalition partner, would rise from four to five seats.

Labor gained one seat in the poll, rising to eight seats from its current seven, while Meretz tumbled to four seats from its current six.

Yamina continues to lose ground, falling from seven seats in the current Knesset and six in the previous poll to five seats, compared to six seats for Yisrael Beytenu. The New Hope party, which won six seats last year, failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.

The Religious Zionist Party alliance with Otzma Yehudit and Noam rose from six seats to eight, one more than the previous poll.

קישורים:4:polls]

The election results would shift dramatically, however, if Netanyahu resigns from the Knesset as part of a plea bargain, with the Likud losing a significant portion of its voters.

The party would retain nearly all of its current 30 seats if Netanyahu is replaced by former Jerusalem Mayor and Likud MK Nir Barkat.

Under Barkat, the Likud is projected to win 29 seats, compared to 20 for Yesh Atid in this scenario.

If MK and former Health Minister Yuli Edelstein wins control of the party, however, the Likud would plummet to 16 seats, behind Yesh Atid’s 21.

Under former Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz he Likud would lose fully half of its current seats, sinking to 15 mandates.

The poll also found that Netanyahu remains the most popular candidate for the premiership, with 34% of respondents saying he is most suitable to serve as prime minister, compared to 17% who named Yair Lapid, 7% who said Benny Gantz, 7% who named Nir Barkat, and just 6% who said incumbent premier Naftali Bennett is the most suitable candidate. Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar followed with 4%, followed by Avidgor Liberman with 2%, and former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen with 1%.

Respondents gave the government poor marks for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with just 22% saying the coalition has handled the crisis well, compared to 30% who called its handling okay, and 48% who said it has handled the crisis badly.

Gantz received the approval rating for his handling of the crisis at 35%, followed by Lapid at 26%, Bennett at 25%, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz at 23%, Finance Minister Avidgor Liberman at 20%, and Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton with 18%.