A new forecast projects nearly 135,000 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States through the beginning of August mainly due to reopening measures under way, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington said on Monday, according to Reuters.
The forecast US death toll through early August totaled 134,475, a midrange between 95,092 and 242,890, the IHME said. The revised projection almost doubles the number of deaths foreseen in the United States since the last estimate in mid-April.
The new projections reflect rising mobility and the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, said the IHME, whose models are used by the White House. The increasing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus, it said.
“This new model is the basis for the sobering new estimate of US deaths,” said IHME director Christopher Murray, referring to the reopening measures.
The IHME said its new model assumes that public health orders that are currently in place will stay in place until infections are minimized.
The IHME’s forecast increases the projected number of deaths in the US by more than 62,000, with a rise of more than 8,700 deaths in New Jersey and more than 7,800 in New York state for the same period, up from estimates released last month.
The US surpassed 60,000 domestic deaths from the novel coronavirus on Wednesday, a day after it recorded its one millionth coronavirus case.
The country has by far the highest death toll of any country in the global pandemic.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump said that his administration is confident the United States will have a vaccine for the novel coronavirus by the end of the year.
“We think we are going to have a vaccine by the end of this year,” Trump said during a virtual Fox News town hall.