Poll: Left wins 61-seat majority - without Liberman

New poll shows Left-Arab bloc winning 61-seat majority even without support from Liberman, as Blue and White surges to 37 seats.

David Rosenberg,

Benny Gantz
Benny Gantz
Elad Malka

The Blue and White party has gained ground on the Likud, a new poll shows, with the center-left party surging to 37 seats, compared to just 31 for the Likud.

According to a new poll conducted by Maagar Mohot and released by Israel Hayom Friday morning, if new elections were held today, the left-wing – Arab bloc would win an outright majority of 61 seats in the 23rd Knesset, a gain of four seats over its current 57 seats; while the right-wing – religious bloc would fall to 51 seats, four less than its current 55. That is the poorest showing for the right-wing – religious bloc in any poll conducted in the past year.

The anti-Zionist Joint Arab List party, which won 13 seats in the September election, would rise to 14 seats if new elections were held today.

Labor-Gesher, which won six seats in September, would remain stable at six if new elections were held today, while the far-left Democratic Union, an alliance of Meretz and the Israel Democratic Party, would fall from five seats to four.

Yisrael Beytenu, which has pushed for a unity government, would retain its eight seats if new elections were held today.

The haredi parties would lose a total of one seat, with United Torah Judaism retaining its seven seats, and Shas falling from nine to eight

The New Right, which split off from Yamina early in the 22nd Knesset, would rise from three seats to five, while the other Yamina factions, Jewish Home and National Union, would fail to cross the electoral threshold, receiving the equivalent of two seats, short of the nearly four required to enter the Knesset. Otzma Yehudit, would receive the equivalent of one seat.

If the Likud was led by Gideon Sa’ar, who is challenging Netanyahu for leadership of the Likud in this month’s primary election, the right-religious bloc would perform far better, receiving 56 seats to 57 for the left-Arab bloc, with Yisrael Beytenu sinking to seven seats.

UTJ would retain it seven seats, while Shas would soar to double digits with 11.

The New Right would rise to seven seats, while the Jewish Home-National Union and Otzma lists would still fail to cross the threshold, with the equivalent of two seats each.

On the Left, Blue and White would win 33 seats, maintaining its current strength, while the Joint Arab List would rise to 15 seats.

Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union would each lose a seat, falling to five and four seats respectively.

The poll also found that Netanyahu’s edge in a head-to-head direct election to the premiership has shrunk, falling to a two-point lead over Blue and White chief Benny Gantz, 42% to 40%.

Gideon Sa’ar, by contrast, trailed Gantz by five points, 31% to 36%.