Iran sanctions
Iran sanctionsiStock

President Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran is working newly declassified intelligence released by Pentagon officials shows.

The intelligence also shows that as a result of Iran’s dire economic situation its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah had to take unprecedented measures to avoid financial collapse with Hamas reportedly retorting to austerity measures and Hezbollah distributing piggy banks among the Lebanese population.

The harsh sanctions which Trump imposed on Iran after he walked out the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) ,the nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers, have crippled the Iranian economy forcing the regime to raise fuel prices in Iran with fifty percent for the first 60 liters and with 200 percent for additional fuel.

The sudden rise in fuel prices caused the largest popular uprising against the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 which took the lives of at least 300 Iranians, wounded more than 4,000 others and landed another 10,000 Iranians in jail.

To get an idea how bad the economic situation in Iran has become here are a few data:

Since the Trump Administration left the JCPOA Iran’s oil exports have fallen from 2 million barrels a day to just 200,000 barrels which means that the budget of the regime has been cut in half.

This year the Iranian government expected to work with a budget of $41 billion but the dramatic decrease in oil exports caused a shortfall of $21 billion in 2019.

The International Monetary Fund recently adjusted its economic forecast for Iran and predicted that the economy of the country is expected to shrink by 9,5 percent instead of the initially predicted 6 percent by the end of this year.

Compared to 2017, the Iranian economy has shrunk by 90 percent the World Bank recently announced.

As for Iran’s national currency the rial, the value of the currency has decreased a staggering 200 percent against the US dollar compared to the year 2017.

One dollar bought 35,000 rials in 2017 but now one dollar equals close to 110,000 rials.

As a result of the staggering high inflation millions of Iranians have been pushed below the poverty line with one them telling me, via an Iranian immigrant in Israel, that her husband’s monthly wages ,after paying housing costs, are barely enough to cover the costs of one day food for her family.

The Iranian regime now blames Saudi Arabia and unspecified “hegemonic countries” (meaning Israel and the United States) for the uprising and accused them of using the internet to fuel the unrest.

A high-ranking regime official furthermore threatened a “firm response” to those countries while Hossein Salami, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), went a step further and said that Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US “will be destroyed if they cross red lines.”

Salami’s remark, if true, can only mean that Iran is close to a nuclear weapon or already has one since the power of its regular army combined with the IRGC is no match for the US and Israel and could not cause the destruction of the countries.

The most likely scenario that will play out in the Middle East now that the regime is in big trouble is a new Iranian attempt to hit its adversaries abroad since reports indicate that the IRGC’s Bajij militia succeeded to stamp out the current uprising with unprecedented force.

Reuters revealed today that Iran was to blame for the drone- and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia early September and that the attack was meant as revenge for the US decision to leave the JCPOA and to impose a new harsh sanction regime on the Islamic Republic.

The attack was also meant as a warning to Iran’s enemies according to Reuters that, furthermore, revealed Khamenei was very cautious not to attack the US directly and okayed the strikes on condition no American civilians would be hurt.

Israel is convinced Iran is plotting a similar attack on the Jewish state and reportedly sent rare warnings to Russia, Iran and the Assad regime in Syria.

The government in Jerusalem said in the messages it would not halt its strikes against the Iranian entrenchment in Syria but also warned it could again act against the Iranian proxy al-Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and the Ansar Allah (Houthi) militia in Yemen.

The warnings were issued after Iran launched four rockets at the Israeli Golan Heights on Tuesday night last week and after the Israeli military delivered a crushing blow to the Quds Force of the IRGC and its allies in Syria in response to the unprovoked Iranian attack.

Former IDF Brig.-Gen. Zvika Haimovich today joined the growing chorus that warns Israel should prepare for what he called a “multi-dimensional Iranian attack” on the Jewish state.

Haimovich was referring to the real possibility Iran will activate all its proxies in three states neighboring Israel and beyond meaning Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

If Iran attacks Israel, it may not be a high-profile target. But it doesn’t matter if they attack the chemical facilities in Haifa or a small factory in Kfar Saba. It doesn’t matter. An attack by Iran, a massive attack against the State of Israel, even if it’s from Iraq – it’s a declaration of war,” the former IDF commander said.

Haimovich’ words came after Gen. Kenneth J. McKenzie Jr. the commander of CENTCOM the US central command for the Middle East issued a similar warning.

McKenzie warned Iran would use long-range ballistic missiles (it has 20,000 of them in Iran) to strike Israel.

Aside from the long-range Iranian missile threat, Israel also has to deal with the Iranian attempt to upgrade crude rockets and transform them into precision GPS-guided missiles via conversion kits.

Iran is constantly trying to supply these conversion kits to Hezbollah which has 140,000 rockets at its disposal but only a few dozens of guided missiles.

Last year after the US left the JCPOA, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo laid out 12 conditions Iran had to meet in order to re-start negotiations with the US.
Here's what Pompeo said: Iran will be forced to make a choice: either fight to keep its economy off life support at home or keep squandering precious wealth on fights abroad. It will not have the resources to do both.”
By now it has become clear Iran choose the latter.