Expert: Palestinian state an existential danger to Israel

Leading US researcher states 'Palestine' is liable to endanger Israel much more than third intifada, will increase danger of nuclear war.

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Mordechai Sones,

Judea, Samaria, and Gaza
Judea, Samaria, and Gaza

The "state of Palestine” presents a far greater threat to Israel than a third intifada or persistent terrorism. This threat, which would further exacerbate the area’s correlation of forces, is potentially existential. Under certain circumstances, Palestinian Arab statehood could meaningfully enlarge the prospects of both mega-terror attacks and regional nuclear war, warns Prof. Louis René Beres of Purdue University, expert on nuclear strategy and a frequent columnist on Arutz Sheva..

In an article published on the Begin-Sadat (BESA Center) website, he explains that examining the subject in depth shows that the danger to Israel from a Palestinian Arab state is far greater than is generally stated, and that it may be existential.

However, he pointed out, the actual danger is indirect - as in the case of a disease that is not serious enough to kill a person, but weakens it in such a way that other diseases can kill it. However, he said, it is also possible that a Palestinian Arab state would pose a mortal danger in itself, but would implement the danger in a piecemeal manner.

According to Beres, since any Palestinian Arab state will be created at the expense of the State of Israel, Israel will weaken as a result of the agreement, while the Palestinian Arab entity will be strengthened. On the basis of Palestinian Arab declarations and positions over the years, there is no escaping the conclusion that in this situation, the Palestinian Arabs will continue their terrorist activities and terrorism will expand in scope.

As for the fear of a third intifada, he wrote, it makes no sense for Israel to encourage its adversaries to become an even more organized and powerful entity, because such an entity could cause Israel greater damage. For example, it could attack the reactor in Dimona. Beres notes that polls conducted by the PA found that most of the residents there support the armed struggle against Israel.

According to Beres, the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state would reduce Israel's strategic depth, which is limited in any case.

As a result, Israel will have to react more strongly and immediately to any threat from Arab countries, whether it is a conventional or an unconventional threat. This will increase the risk of a deterioration into non-conventional war. Beres also argues that "Palestine" could turn into an ISIS state or a disintegrating Syrian-style state.

Prof. Louis Rene Beres
Prof. Louis René Beres