Hillary Clinton
Hillary ClintonReuters

With what just a few weeks ago looked like an easy election victory for Hillary Clinton becoming a virtual dead heat, support for the former Secretary of State among members of the Democratic base appears to be turning away from the party’s standard-bearer.

When Manhattan real estate mogul Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign last summer, many believed his rhetoric on illegal immigration would alienate Hispanic voters, leading to a drop-off in support for the GOP after Mitt Romney’s already mediocre performance among that demographic in 2012.

As Trump has surged among blue collar white voters, Mrs. Clinton has worked to maintain the so-called Obama coalition, which relied on high turnout and strong margins of support from African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, Millennials, and single white women.

But recent polling suggests the coalition that helped to twice elect the nation’s first black president may be coming apart.

Hispanic voters, who Clinton campaign officials believed would be easily won over in a race against Trump, may in fact be more supportive of the Republican ticket this year than they were four years ago.

In 2012, Obama won Hispanic voters by 44 points – 71% to 27% - the largest margin since Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996. Now, however, a Bloomberg average of polls shows Mrs. Clinton leading by 6 points less, with a 38-point margin.

The latest LA Times poll shows an even tighter race among Hispanics, with Clinton holding a mere 16.6% lead over Trump – 52.7% to 36.1%.

That softening edge among Hispanics has hurt Clinton in states like Colorado and Nevada. The two latest polls show Trump leading in the latter, holding a narrow edge in the RealClearPolitics average of polls there.

Clinton’s support among African Americans has also been softening up significantly compared to Obama’s massive 91% and 87% margins among that group in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 68% of registered black voters said they would back Mrs. Clinton – a massive drop from the 93% who backed Obama in 2012.

Even the LA Times poll, which shows greater support for Clinton among African Americans, still shows a 10-point drop from 2012, while Trump maintains Romney’s level of support.

Younger voters have also shifted away from former Secretary Clinton. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed just 31% of Millennial voters (ages 18-34) supporting Clinton, giving her a paltry 5 point lead over Trump. That’s a 17-point drop for Mrs. Clinton, almost erasing her 24-point lead completely. Among voters aged 18-29, Obama won more than 60% in 2012.

With the slow breakdown of the Obama coalition, the race has slipped into a dead heat, with FiveThirtyEight predicting that if the elections were held today (now-cast), Trump would have a 46.7% chance of winning, compared to 53.3% for Clinton. The polls-plus indicator, which predicts the results for the actual election in November, is only slightly better for Clinton, putting the odds as 55.7-44.3 in her favor. Nevertheless, those are the best numbers for Trump – and worst for Clinton – during the entire election cycle.