Poll: Yesh Atid, Kulanu Competing for Center Bloc

Center bloc competing for same voters, poll reveals; right-wing could strengthen due to attacks in Paris.

Tova Dvorin,

Knesset elections (illustration)
Knesset elections (illustration)
Miriam Alster/Flash 90

The right-wing bloc is still in the lead for the 2015 elections, according to a TNS poll published in Walla! news Monday night - and recent events in Paris may strengthen it. 

Likud is still in the lead with 24 seats, according to the poll, with Labor close behind at 23.

Jewish Home remains perennially in third place with 15 seats, followed by the Arab parties in fourth if they run on a joint list. Individually, the Arab parties would be far down the list, with United Arab List at six seats, and Hadash and Balad missing the threshold at 3 and 2 seats, respectively. 

Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party and Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu are competing for fifth place, with each garnering ten seats in Monday's poll. 

United Torah Judaism would follow with eight seats; Yisrael Beytenu, with seven seats; and Shas and Meretz gaining six seats each. 

MK Eli Yishai's Ha'am Itanu party failed to meet the Knesset threshold - but Walla! notes that it would edge very close to it and could just gain enough votes. 

Otzma Yehudit continues not to be represented in the polls, with the party revealing it is the target of an intentional media blackout after a senior pollster told them they are being excluded from the survey lists.

When asked whether the string of terror attacks in Paris would affect Israeli elections, 52% of respondents opined that it would skew voters rightward; 43% said that it would not affect the results and 5% said that events would strengthen the left. 

Individual parties: changing allegiances?

The TNS poll also asked respondents on their opinions on individual parties, amidst a slew of party primaries and candidacy announcements.

The poll found that Moshe Kahlon's candidacy announcements for Kulanu have not significantly affected voters, noting that most of the names on his list are relative unknowns. 

72.6% of voters said that the composition of the list, which includes Kahlon, Retired IDF General Yoav GalantIsrael Prize Winner and social activist Eli Elalufformer Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Oren, Kiryat Shmona Deputy Mayor Yifat Sasha-Biton and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Rachel Azaria, does not influence their decision to vote (or not vote) for Kulanu. 

8.9% said that the list reduces their inclination to vote for him, while 18.5% said the composition of the list increases that chance.

However, Kulanu could see an upswing of support from Yesh Atid, who mostly shares the same platform with a distinctly leftward bent; 24.9% of respondents who said they support Yesh Atid said they would consider voting for Kulanu instead based on the current list for the party. 

Jewish Home's recent announcement clarifying that it does not support same-sex marriage would largely not affect its voter support, the poll also noted, with 56.2% of respondents stating that the revelation does not affect their decision to vote or not vote for the party. 29.1% responded that it would reduce their chances of voting for Jewish Home and 14.7% stated that it had only increased their support. 

From respondents who already belong to Jewish Home and are set to vote in the primaries, 66% of respondents stated that it did not affect their support for the party, 19.1% of respondents said it increased their support, and 14.2% said that it had decreased their chances of voting for the party in the general elections.