The recent terrorist attack in Bulgaria raises questions about the direction of anti-Israel attacks worldwide.
When the second Palestinian intifada began in the year 2000, the wave of terror attacks was primarily against targets in Israel. There were and have been sporadic attacks against Jewish targets since Israel's independence; however the warnings of possible terror attacks in Turkey, Azerbaijan among other countries, the terrorist attack a few months ago in Toulouse, coupled with yesterday's suicide bombing may be signaling a change in the strategy of terrorist organizations.
There has been relative quiet in terms of suicide attacks or shootings within pre-1967 Israel in the past few years.
There are those who attribute it to the security wall in Judea and Samaria as well as the fence in Gaza. Others point to the fact that many of the terrorist cells that operated in Judea and Samaria have been captured or killed.
Thus, if Israel's security apparatus is successful in hindering terrorist attacks within Israel, will that lead to an increase in terrorist attacks abroad?
Professor Efraim Inbar, Head of the Begin Sadat Center at Bar Ilan University and expert on Israeli strategy affairs, doesn't think so. "Terrorist organizations have and continue attempting to hit Israel targets within Israel and abroad," commented Inbar, talking to Arutz Sheva.
"Don't forget Bulgaria is country that is easily accessible through Turkey with a relatively low awareness level of terror. There is always the possibility of terror attacks in Israel, however it is easier to hit Jewish targets outside of Israel – they don't come in contact with Israeli security."
In the aftermath of the attack, there was skepticism as to whether Bulgaria took all the necessary means to prevent this attack. There were implications that the Prime Minster was trying to shirk responsibility for his country's failure to stop the attack.
Inbar doesn't think the Prime Minister of Bulgaria was lying when he said that he had no warning of the attack. "At the same time, it is unreasonable to expect the Mossad or our intelligence apparatus to be able to succeed one hundred percent in preventing attacks.
"Terrorist organizations are trying to hit Jewish/Israeli targets around the clock and it's just a matter of where they succeed. We have to keep a high awareness level and make sure our intelligence is doing the best job they can."
"Remember," said Inbar, "Arabs are Arabs, and radical Islamists are radical Islamists, they haven't changed."