Glad as we will all be to see the back of Olmert, will these election be a reason to celebrate?  I’m not overly optimistic.  And that’s too bad, because there could potentially be plenty of reason for optimism.
The situation in Israel today is very similar to the years after the Yom Kippur War--but in the other direction

The situation in Israel today is very similar to the years after the Yom Kippur War.  That war brought a superficial political change to Israel and a much deeper and more destructive cultural change.  In 1977 Menahem Begin was elected Prime Minister.  He gave back all of Sinai, concluded a cold peace with Egypt, and committed Israel to Palestinian “self-determination.”  He did bomb the Iraqi reactor, but overall he turned out to be (with apologies to Yisrael Medad) a very mediocre Prime Minister.

The real change that came over Israel after 1973 was far more serious than Menahem Begin.  The war caused ordinary Israelis to lose faith in the verities of classical Zionism—in effect, to lose their nerve.  Marginal cultural forces took advantage of the opportunity, took over academia, the courts, and the press, and made Israel post-Zionist.  Israel became something Israelis were ashamed of.  Judaism and Eretz Yisrael became anathema.  Peace became a new religion.  That it wasn’t working and could not work made no difference—a demoralized and confused people tried to make it work, again and again.

The situation in Israel today is similar, but in the other direction.  Poll after poll shows that the people no longer believe in peace.  They want it, but don’t think they can get it.  They are skeptical about everything—the courts, the government, the media, the army.  They have lost faith in everything that went before.  What are they going to believe in now?
Israel needs a political force that can challenge the conventional wisdom. Challenging the conventional wisdom does not mean preaching to Orthodox Jews. They’re already converted.

This is an issue much deeper than the upcoming election.  Netanyahu, of course, will be the next Prime Minister, and he’s heaps better than either of the two alternatives, Barak or Livni.  But just as Israelis get ready for a (nonviolent) revolution, Netanyahu has become very conservative.  He probably won’t lead the people on crazy diplomatic adventures, which is good (and he may do something decisive about Iran).  Like Barak, however, he has positioned himself as the protector of the judicial mafia, figuring it’s better to have them with him than against him.  In short, he’s preparing to fight the last election he lost, in 1999.  He’ll win, but this is 2008.

Israel needs a political force that can challenge the conventional wisdom.  Challenging the conventional wisdom does not mean preaching to Orthodox Jews.  They’re already converted.  It means telling ordinary, secular and traditional Jews in the center of the political spectrum that there’s a new agenda—the Jewish state is under threat, from within and without, and Israel needs to jettison its current political establishment and policies and get new ones in order to survive.  Many people who voted for Kadima last time would be prepared to vote for such a platform today.  In short, one needs a leadership that emerges from the “camp of the faithful” but appeals to the center of the political spectrum, a leadership capable of appropriating votes that Likud, Lieberman and Livni properly consider their own.  Unfortunately, no such leadership is in view.

There are two places such leadership could emerge.  One is within the Likud, where efforts are underway to recreate a political “camp” committed to a new agenda.  The advantage of such a grouping within the Likud is that Netanyahu can’t leave them out of his government because they are built in to his party. 
Let’s hope that bold and forward-looking politicians step forward to change the Israel’s political map before the people go to the polls on November 11.

The other is outside the Likud.  The people most tuned in to such a message are Aryeh Eldad and Ephraim Eitam.  Note that one is Orthodox and the other is not, which is just right.  Unfortunately, these two are caught up in an attempt to have their cake and eat it too—to reform the rest of their National Union party and make it embrace primaries and a new agenda.  They can’t decide whether to base themselves on the old Orthodox constituency—which to my thinking would be entirely useless—or make an independent attempt to capture traditionally “center” voters for a new agenda, which would be an extremely risky political strategy—the only one, however, which has any point.

Let’s hope that bold and forward-looking politicians step forward to change the Israel’s political map before the people go to the polls on November 11.