Annapolis turned out worse than we would like, but a lot better than we feared.

Annapolis will prove useless in settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and damaging to the State of Israel, but the
The mood of alarmism in which Annapolis was anticipated, and in which it has been received, among some of us is overdone and damaging
mood of alarmism in which it was anticipated, and in which it has been received, among some of us is overdone, and damaging in itself.  While Annapolis will have immediate negative consequences which should be combated to the best of our ability, it would be a big mistake to focus our efforts exclusively, or even primarily, on fighting the direct consequences of Annapolis.  The most important fact about Annapolis is that the Israeli public views it more or less as do readers of this site:  pointless at best, and likely harmful.  The second important fact about it is that sooner or later it will disappear down the memory hole of history, like the Wye Plantation accords and the Oslo accords themselves.

The great thing to fear from Annapolis was that Ehud Olmert would lock Israel into some kind of diplomatic commitment regarding substance—Jerusalem, borders, settlements, etc.—which might bind future Israeli governments.  This did not happen.  Olmert made clear he loves the idea of a Palestinian state.  He yearns for a Palestinian state.  He sets a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital above his highest joy.  But he did not commit the State of Israel to doing anything about it, except to talk.  He did commit Israel to negotiate an agreement about everything within a year.  Those negotiations will lead to nothing, just as the negotiations of the past six months have led to nothing.  Thankfully, when the negotiations become nothing and the Olmert government, in the fullness of time, becomes nothing, it will leave the next Israeli government with a diplomatic clean slate.

Olmert's big concession at Annapolis was to hand over to the United States the responsibility for judging how both Israel and the Palestinians are doing in fulfilling their commitments under stage one of the "road map."  Under stage one, the Palestinian authority is supposed to suppress "terror."  Since "terror," in the form of Hamas and its patron Iran, is much more likely to suppress the Palestinian Authority, we can safely bet that the first stage of the road map will never be completed.  That is the uniform opinion of Israel's military establishment, up to and including Ehud Barak.  But the United States, concerned to show "progress," will probably make Israel press ahead with its own commitments, which hitherto Israel has refused to implement unilaterally:  Expelling Jews from "outposts" in Judea and Samaria and reducing its security presence in those areas.  The Jews in Judaea and Samaria, and perhaps in Israel itself, are about to take damage.  The damage will be pointless, because there is no way it can lead to an agreement, far less its implementation, but that's the way it is with Olmert in charge.  Lives will be wrecked—perhaps mine, perhaps my neighbor's—but the Jewish People will be able to repair the damage and go on.
The people now see the big picture our way. They just don't know what to do about it.

How can I write such a hard and heartless thing?  I don't mean to be heartless, but we can use some stiff upper lip around here.  Since the Lebanon War last year, the tide in Israel has turned.  The people now see the big picture our way.  They just don't know what to do about it.  Everything we do and say ought to be directed at leading public opinion in Israel.  What we need to do is not just fight Olmert's commitments under Annapolis but get the public to see them our way:

1. Olmert's commitments will cause needless damage to Israel's interests, to the cohesion of its badly riven society, and to individual Israelis, and it will all be pointless.
2. Anyone who stays in the Olmert government and lets this happen, especially Shas and Avigdor Lieberman, is helping Olmert inflict pointless damage on his own people and should be punished at the polls.
3. The two-state solution is dead.  Hopelessly unattainable.  Israelis ought to become impatient to get on with some alternative solution to Palestinian society's unappeasable hatred of us, such as compensated Palestinian emigration to other lands.
   Olmert's commitments will cause needless damage to Israel's interests, and it will all be pointless. Anyone who stays in the Olmert government and lets this happen, especially Shas and Avigdor Lieberman, is helping Olmert inflict pointless damage on his own people and should be punished at the polls.
   

In all this a lot depends on our ability, not to scream "gevald" and wring our hands, or to allow Olmert to create the impression that this is an issue solely between him and "the settlers," but to stay focused on the objective:  Israeli public opinion.  Yesterday my colleague, Prof. Moshe Koppel, reported to me with displeasure that he heard an interview with residents of Judaea and Samaria, in which the latter promised "to defeat"  Olmert's plans.  Why displeasure?  Because this allows the press to portray the issue as one that does not concern the residents of Raanana, Kfar Saba and West Jerusalem, when actually they stand to suffer the fate of Sderot if Olmert succeeds in realizing any part of his plans.  What should the interviewees have said?  "We warn residents of Raanana that if Olmert succeeds in his plans for us kassams will rain down on their houses, just as Ariel Sharon's plans led to kassams on Sderot."   Most Israelis who hear that will now agree.