Haftar Hard to Replace in Libya

Manish Rai,

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לבן ריק
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Manish Rai
Manish Rai is a columnist specializing on the Middle East and the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, and editor of geopolitical news agency ViewsAround. He has reported from Jordon, Iran, Qatar and Afghanistan. His work has been quoted in House of Commons, British Parliament.He can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com.

Khalifa Haftar, a veteran general and strongman in Libya has returned to his stronghold and headquarter in the eastern city of Benghazi following an extended absence, including reported treatment in Paris hospital for a stroke. General Haftar has been part of the Libyan political scene for more than four decades, shifting from the centre to the periphery and back again as his fortunes changed. Initial reports even suggested that the 75-year-old strongman who controls most of eastern Libya and oil crescent was seriously ill, incapacitated or even dead and in his Libyan National Army opening salvo in a battle to succeed him has started. But now all these rumours have been put to rest. Haftar has been consolidating his position in Libya since announcing operation dignity against Islamist extremist’s forces in 2014. His forces have both strengthened their hold on their stronghold in Cyrenaica in eastern Libya and advanced westward into critical terrain since May 2017. People were speculating he could make it to Tripoli soon may be through force or even by getting him elected as the President through elections. It’s a hard fact that significant number of Libyans now see Haftar as the only person which can bring some form of order in there lawless and chaotic country.

 

General Haftar commands the Libyan National Army which is the strongest force in Libya as of now. His forces are better equipped than any other force and Haftar even poses his own air force which includes MIG 21 fighter jets and combat helicopters. General has formed carefully his Libyan National Army (LNA) after taking into account social dynamics of Libyan society. LNA consists of nationalist coalition of military units, local and tribal militias, Salafi fighters and Sudanese mercenaries, particularly from the Darfuri rebel groups. The LNA currently controls the populated areas of eastern Libya, the oil crescent region, and strategic military sites in the southwest which has boosted the role of General Haftar has game changer in Libyan politics. General also enjoyed unlimited regional support from the UAE and Egypt, as well as international support from France and to a lesser extent Russia. Haftar also commands greater degree of tribal support from most of major tribes like- Magharba, Baraasa, Hasa, Obaidat and Zintan which has most powerful tribal militia called Zintani brigades. Recently Haftar established contact with western Libyan tribes Warfalla and Tarhouna which lie on route to capital Tripoli and in future can facilitate him on his march towards capital.

 

Haftar casts himself as the person who can bring stability to Libya after years of conflict and areas under his control are relatively stable and have seen far less fighting. Haftar's popularity has grown as his military governance structures provide a semblance of stability although his way of rule seems to be autocratic and undemocratic but it delivers to the people some form of governance which is much needed. His stock is rising especially given the growing dissatisfaction with the Government of National Accord (GNA) which merely rule in some parts of Tripoli, inter-militia warfare and the collapse of the Libyan dinar.

 

By allowing the oil to flow and providing stable security at the crucial Libyan ports, Haftar has significantly increased his political leverage and standing among Libyans, as well as the international community, strengthening his negotiating position for any fresh political bargaining. Haftar remains an important figure in the Libyan political landscape. However, the problem with Haftar is that he believes he has a very strong position and thus can impose his own conditions on the other parties, which is not the case. Although the balance of power is currently in his favour, this will not last forever, and he cannot resolve the situation militarily to his advantage. So, to ensure a long-term stability for Libya regional and international backers of Haftar should convince him to play a constructive political role and not just rely upon military means. A comprehensive political settlement that includes all Libyan parties and influential forces on the ground in any potential settlement in the only way forward for Libya. Haftar has to be engaged heavily to contribute his part for any future political solution and he should be offered a greater role to play in any future arrangement.



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