The National Intelligence Estimate made by US civilian and military agencies says that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that this Intelligence estimate is a "victory" for Iran and means that the world as a whole now accepts Iran as a nuclear power.


The victory declaration by Ahmadinejad will no doubt be interpreted by those same agencies as his saying that Iran will now have no problem pursuing its civilian nuclear

The US Intelligence Estimate does not take the past remarks of Iranian leaders seriously.

energy goals. But it is, of course, not at all clear that this is what Ahmadinejad means, as Iran's leaders have spoken in the past of the need for Iran to become a nuclear military power. And they have even issued death threats to Israel on this basis, including the famous one by Ahmadinejad's predecessor, Rafsanjani, who promised that in a nuclear exchange with Israel, Iran would survive and Israel would not.


Clearly, however, the US Intelligence Estimate does not take the past remarks of Iranian leaders seriously. Nor does the American intelligence establishment take seriously the warning given in the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Director of National Intelligence, issued on January 11, 2007, in which it was asserted that "Iran is determined to develop nuclear weapons."


They also do not take seriously the major advantages that would be gained by Tehran should it become a nuclear power. Being a nuclear power would further Iran's effort to become the leader of the Islamic world as a whole. Its power to control and intimidate its Gulf neighbors would increase greatly, as would its power to influence the world's energy markets.
 
The Bush Administration, which seemed to be surprised by the report, has now lost its military option. It has also lost much of its leverage in imposing further UN sanctions. The Bush Administration and its European allies will now be relying on Iranian good will regarding whether Iran does or does not develop nuclear weapons.


In the United States, there is, by and large, relief at the thought that the US, still engaged heavily in Afghanistan and Iraq, will not be going to war with Iran. It is very possible that what the Intelligence Estimate reflects, above all, is the US military's desire to not be involved in such a war at this time.


So, for the US - which, after all, faces no immediate existential danger from Iran - the report is a kind of short-term way out. Its real consequences will be seen only in time.

Israel now stands truly alone.



For Israel, the consequences of the report are very difficult. Israel now stands truly alone as the one nation that can preempt the Iranian nuclear threat. Even in proclaiming the threat it stands alone, with its credibility unanimously questioned.


The US was, in every way, militarily and politically in a better position to confront Iran than Israel is. Israel, in engaging in any future preemptive action, would have not only the military operation and its consequences, but the burden of proof as to Iran's nuclearization upon it.