It appears now that the US has no real strategy for advancing its own interests in Iraq. The forty-dollar-plus barrel of oil is an indication that one major strategic goal, i.e., exercising greater control over the world's oil supply and price, has not been realized. The possibility of introducing a democratic regime in Iraq that would be the flagship for reconstitution of the whole Arab world now seems dead. No one believes in this any more, even its initial proponents.

The US apparently is going to be juggling various factions as most of them work clandestinely, or not, to drive the US out. And it seems very likely that the US will come to feel that it is merely losing people in Iraq, and gaining no great strategic advantage in being there. There will be an increasing temptation to withdraw, and most likely, if Senator Kerry is elected, the withdrawal will come months and not years after his entrance to office.

Of course, the more strategy-conscious Americans know that a withdrawal will make things far worse, and put in jeopardy the supposedly pro-American regimes in the Arab world, notably the Saudis, but also Egypt and Jordan. But this probably will not prevent a withdrawal.

In any case, the option of a great American victory is gone. And with it is gone Israel's hope that the whole region would be transformed into democracies that would then make peace with it.

This American failure in Iraq may also mean a turn away from Israel toward greater appeasement, not so much of the Arabs as of the traditional European allies of the United States, who now so one-sidedly support the Arabs. Thus, there will be more pressure on Israel to make withdrawals, and more pressure toward establishing a Palestinian Arab state in the land Israel withdraws from. And this, out of the mistaken conception (which in itself is one major reason for the US failure in the area) that once the Palestinian Arabs have a state, the region will become more quiet. The US may, after losing Iraq, then attempt to buy European, and with it Arab, favor through forging a consensus with them against Israel. There would then be worldwide pressure on Israel to make unilateral withdrawals from Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Thus, instead of having helped build democracy the operation in Iraq will work to undermine the single democracy in the region.

How Israel will respond to this now is a real question. But with its own Prime Minister also advocating withdrawal, and saying that he supports the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state, the situation is not promising. And this, while other dangers, including from the development of Iranian non-conventional weapons, will intensify.

The failure of the US in Iraq may well mean then that Israel will be more alone and more endangered than at any time since its War of Independence.